Captive Adaptations

This March is going to be one of the months which will probably be written in history books. Not as much as 9/11 is written about, but some major economic disruption will be witnessed world over, and the country that will be impacted most, is of course US.

The Main stream media in India is all geared up for Dubyaman’s visit to India, and the past week has been filled with Indian budget for 2006. While most of the MainStreamMedia chooses to ignore and hide the most important news bits, the red-herring habits of the media has forced many thinkers to look for alternate streams of thought. And believe me some of the new bits below are not worth ignoring.

The “PetroDollar” nature of economics followed by America, has for the first time in history run into rough weather with Iran announcing the opening up of an Oil Bourse on March 20th 2006. To understand the nature of the impending crisis read this article.

The twin deficits that the US is currently facing, has also necessitated this Iranian threat to American Economy, be made as opaque as possible. Yes, the disclosure of M3 monetary aggregates will be discontinued from March 23rd 2006. A sure sign of a failing economy !

No matter what the Federal Reserve is going to do, the situation is very well described by the poster below.

We are all of aware that the American era is coming towards its end, but is this the begining of the end ?. Time will tell !

The start of a new year and serendipity is smiling at me. Just 10 days ago in my aforeblogged Making a Difference - Redux, I had made references to a few wonderful people doing some interesting work and who are really MAD (Making a Difference).

The first on that list was PlanetRead by Brij Kothari about SLS - Same Language Subtitling. Today, I accidentally typed Google.org instead of the usual Google.com and I noticed PlanetRead on that page. A little more digging and I found this on GoogleBlog.

Both Google Foundation and Google Grants program seem very commited to address the Digital Divide issue globally. The vision of Google Foundation is made crystal clear by the words on the right side of the page by Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Here let me quote.

“We hope that someday this institution will eclipse Google itself in overall world impact by ambitiously applying innovation and significant resources to the largest of the world’s problems.”

What more can I say ?. Its definitely a shot-in-the-arm for all people who dare to think & act different. The corporate grants and backing for all such programs have had names like Stanford University, Reuters and now Google Foundation is putting their weight behind such efforts. Examples of Atanu Dey backed by Vinod Khosla, and now Brij Kothari backed by Google Foundation are screaming the obvious, all such ideas are becoming serious business, and are more than just philanthropic efforts. Let me reiterate, its time for all you good souls to act and take “The Other Road Ahead“.

Greed, Desire and Aspirations-for-things beyond one’s reach. Are these the ugly side of humans ? Atleast that is what has been consistently taught to most of us, mostly in developing countries like India. All these aspects of human nature are considered so negative that it has been taboo to lust over money, beauty or glory. In the process have we lost/undermined these human qualities and hence are we failing to Excel ?. Lets see some practical examples and then draw some conclusions.

America became a super power on exactly these virtues (or should I say vices). The idea of growth every quarter, no matter how much a company/individual has, he is forced to sustain growth - Is that not Greed ?. America has always been a country with Wants and not Needs. Necessities for basic living were achieved a long time ago, but “Quality of Life” dictates our everyday fight. Is that not Desire ? America is a Credit based society, most of what an individual has or buys is based on loans or credits. Forget individuals, families, corporations, why even Government functions on credit in one form or the other.

Corporations are funded by either investors or by stock markets, which essentially are other people’s money. Governments operate with huge deficits (both Budget deficits as well as Trade deficits, as is the case with US right now). Are these not clearly Living Beyond Means ? And yet we see that this country has been reigning supreme for more than a century. (Although the supremacy is being threatened by various factors and the eventual decline is inenvitable, none-the-less lets not digress, and let us save that for another day)

So are not Greed, Desire and Living beyond means, the characteristics that have driven every Entity in America to grow ?. Does that mean this is the “New Normal” and accepted nature of humans ?. Are Principles only for the UnPreviliged ? Should Indians and Chinese the to-be-recrowned-new-leaders-of-the-world follow these new normals ?

Interesting questions, will try for answers in the follow up posts. In the meantime, shoot your comments on all these interesting topics.

Ah… the gloom-and-doom of my previous post. There are some thinkers to whom I turn to when I am feeling really low in my positive energies. I realized that Blue Print for Action by Barnett was due for release in October, but I have had very little time here in India to follow my fav blogs. But today, I did catch up with it. Coincidentally I had bought a few books at the Bangalore Book Festival 2005 a few days ago on Globalized world in the 21st Century, and Barnett made references to both of them in this IT Conversations podcast.

Also, I would like to quote Shashi Tharoor on Globalization. In his book “Bookless in Baghdad” he talks about an item circulating on the Internet about the death of Princess Diana as follows

An English Princess with a Welsh title leaves a French hotel with her Egyptian companion, who has supplanted a Pakistani; she is driven in a German car with a Dutch engine by a Belgian chauffeur full of Scottish whisky; they are chased by Italian paparazzi on Japanese motorcycles into a Swiss-built tunnel and crash; a rescue is attempted by an American doctor using Brazilian medicines; and the story is now being told to you now by an Indian in Bangalore. There’s globalization.

What’s profound with Barnett is his optimism. In the above conversation he speaks of Echo-boomers, India and China defining the new Rule-sets for the 21st century and lots more. Any of you wanting to send me a Christmas present ? Here is my wish

This is a prelude to Bangalore vs BayArea - Part IV and hence a mezzanine entry between Bangalore vs BayArea - Part III and likely-to-be-posted Part IV. Some of the questions that I had left unanswered with Part III were :

• What are the most important ideas Bangalore can emulate from Bay Area?
• How to fuel entreprenurial hunger in the otherwise complacent Indian “Think Tank”?
• What are the tactical, strategic and demographical cohorts that needs to be looked at?

For starters its the Echo Boomers. This generation is coming of age, and its inevitable. What’s more, being a band of around 80 million in strength, and with an individualistic attitude never before seen in history, this generation will redefine the economic markets world over. A consumer behaviour that is individualistic in nature will always demand “Tailored & Esoteric solutions” rather than “Generic products”.

An assertive, self assured, self empowered generation, it will have a $180 billion in annual spending capacity according to Doug Akin, managing partner of Mr. Youth, a marketing company that specializes in youth marketing.

So what are some of the details that the new startups coming out of Bangalore & BayArea need to concentrate on.

• This group spends around 15 hours per week on the web, doing everything from downloading music to chatting with friends, to looking for deals.
• This group is highly internet savvy and responds to electronic communication, they seek out opinions of others, understand and access instant information routinely and they will mix and match products to satisfy their needs for style and convenience.

If you want to avoid a mid-career crisis, and grow consistently with the changing market, follow the pulse of the “Echo Boomers”. What are you waiting for ?. Get started by googling “Echo Boomers”

My salutes to the Man, Peter Drucker who passed away today. The visionary who managed to predict the course of the future of business, many times, has had huge influences on stalwarts like Winston Churchill, Bill Gates, Jack Welch. The names speak for themselves, so Peter Drucker definitely was the rarest in this century.

His book of 1949, the “Concept of a Corporation” is said to have started the “Field of Consulting” which has become an industry which feeds me now. So, I owe not only some of the insights that I have learnt to this man, but also my means of living. So, hats-off to Peter Drucker.

Most importantly like all geniuses, he was not just a “Management Guru” and most people don’t know that he was also a man who touched the lives of many, and some of his insights about life, about adapting to changes and to finally age, have truly captured my imagination. Thank you Mr. Peter Drucker.

If you are more interested, google on Peter Druker particularly “My Life as a Knowledge Worker“.

I am flying again today and will be in Bangalore by Tuesday. Although I am not flying via Singapore this time, I just wanted to revisit the thread about Singapore’s transformation from a swamp land to what it is today, mostly because of one man and his vision - Lee Kuan Yew.

Just a few weeks ago, he was interviewed by a German magazine, about the much touted “Asian Century“. The man’s economic intelligence is clearly apparent in this interview. Some of the all-time-best statements I have read in the recent years come out in this article, and his answers to the quandary that most of the Western countries face seem so simple. He sure comes across as a man with impeccable character and clarity. I am highly impressed.

Here are a few highlights from his interview.

On Globalization and how the late 80’s and early 90’s started the disruption of the cosy Western Life-style.

The social contract that led to workers sitting on the boards of companies and everybody being happy rested on this condition: I work hard, I restore Germany’s prosperity, and you, the state, you have to look after me. I’m entitled to go to Baden Baden for spa recuperation one month every year. This old system was gone in the blink of an eye when two to three billion people joined the race — one billion in China, one billion in India and over half-a-billion in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

Democracy v/s Meritocracy

Why should I be against democracy? The British came here, never gave me democracy, except when they were about to leave. But I cannot run my system based on their rules. I have to amend it to fit my people’s position. In multiracial societies, you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion. Supposing I’d run their system here, Malays would vote for Muslims, Indians would vote for Indians, Chinese would vote for Chinese. I would have a constant clash in my Parliament which cannot be resolved because the Chinese majority would always overrule them. So I found a formula that changes that… We run a meritocracy.

Read on.. you just can’t ignore his insights…

All,
Some surprise moments, and after a long but eventful travel via Hongkong, Singapore, I reached Mumbai last night.
Since, this is a work related trip, I do not have too much liberty or luxury to explore the fun places of this newly termed Maximum City. But I am near Pali Hill, and this seems to be a cool place.
Visited the headquarters of one of the largest but really young banks today. Awesome !. Some really good engineering and banking talent has been amassed here, and to top it, they have the right attitude to make it really dynamic. It felt good.
I had a long lay over in Singapore for around 6 hours yesterday, so I got the opportunity this time to take their free trip around the City/Country/State. Will blog those details later. But, this entry is my first from Mumbai.
The next stop is Delhi, and I will try to post something more from there too.

Over the past fortnight, I have observed numerous articles about America losing its competitiveness in Science and Technology. My opinion, people and their “Cool Hunting” nature is to be blamed for the most part. If history is any evidence, this is what we have observed.

Take the manufacturing industry, some 30-40 years ago, manufacturing jobs were honorable in the US, but today no body in US or Western countries want to work in the Shop floor which involves huge amounts of sweat and strain. But people in China are happily churning out the volumes.

Lets take the airline industry here in the US. At one time, being an airline pilot was thought to be glamorous work. But bankrupt airlines, falling salaries, the threat of hijacking, the grind of globe hopping, and a life of chronic jet lag have made the profession much less romantic and less desirable than it once was. But in the Booming Airlines industry in India this seems to be exactly the kind of jobs the youths are looking for. I sincerely believe that the nature of the jobs or nature of the industry as such, does not change, its the nature of the people that changes. Yes, the geographical locations might change, but if you are interested you should be willing to pursue them in which ever part of the Globe. Otherwise, One man’s menial job is other man’s dream job.

The IT industry has also started to take a toll due to this search for non-challance. At one point IT was a youth movement, an infusion of cool ideas and fresh technologies, having brains was really cool. But with Outsourcing and Offshoring, long hours and attention to detail, the effects of the “cool steroids” began to fade. Tech jobs have turned out to be monotonous, uncreative and easily farmed. The youths here started looking for other avenues, and hence stayed away from Science and Technology.

The results of this attitude has already started to show with US beginning to lose its competitiveness. Maths, Science and Technology decline has only been in the minds of people. For as long as I can remember Maths, Science and Information technology skills have supported economic expansion in all sectors. Its only that the generations after the 70’s here in the US and in most Western countries, that it has lost relevance & hence its direction. The parents and current generation kids alike, seem to have lost interest.

Its little wonder, that the Asian Century has begun. Can a few thinking parents, save the West ?. Overall, I think this cartoon summarizes it all !.

Captive Adaptations wishes all Indians a Proud & Happy Independence Day !

Every anniversary is a reminder for each of us to stop and reflect on the Events that have passed by, and think about the events that can and will be. On this Independence day, lets introspect and apprise ourselves of the India we do not know.

Being in the IT industry, I have to highlight this. India’s share is 3% of the world’s IT GDP, and even with this small number, we have ensured that everyone takes notice of our capabilities. I am modifying Vajpayee’s statement of 2 years ago here and let me quote his Hindi statement “Theen pratishath Logon ne Karode-OnKa Dil Jeeta, Agar 100 Karode Miljayenge, Tho Kaun Hame Hara Payega ?“. The English translation goes something like this, “

So lets contribute in our own small ways, and lets bear in mind Kennedy’s words, Ask Not what the Country has done for you, Ask what you have done for your Country !