Captive Adaptations

Each of us demand more from our lives. We are constantly reassessing ourselves against the environment we live in, wanting our lives to be richer and more substantive. But at the same time we are held captive by the fear of the unknown, and are trapped in our strides with a reluctance to even try.

People who have unearthed their true calling have always intrigued our minds. Its their fight against the seduction of wealth, comfort and desire, that humbles us. Those who broke away from the norm, and followed their dreams, seemed so brave that we chose to tag them as heroes, as legends.

Should we make peace with our ambitions ? Should we make money first and then fund our dreams ? Should this be our destiny ?

The biggest obstacles to these questions are that we don’t permit our minds to consider them seriously, for the fear of failure, the uncertainty of the outcome, and the doubts on our own capabilities shroud our reasoning.

Lets step aside for a moment and reflect back at the road that we have just traversed. How did we reach where we are today ? Did we not start off with just the pursuit of excitement on our minds ? Where we not armed only with our weakness ? Was not “fear” the only equipment we carried ?

If we seem to radiate wisdom from our choice of the road yesterday, why is it today, we can’t seem to choose “The Other Road Ahead” ?

The genesis of the problems of most developed nations are their aging population. Japan, Western Europe led by Britain, America, are all sitting on a time bomb that is bound to hamper their economic growth. Popularly known as “Inverted Pyramid” the demographics of these developed nations clearly show that the aging population will outgrow the “income generating” youth population, more “spending hands” than “earning hands”, ineffect losing the capacity to attract any potential investment, since there will be no significant ROI in the next 20 years.

Population Pyramids for United States

Population Pyramids for Japan

However, China and India are two very important economies with emerging markets, which coupled with their surging youth population, are sure bets for ROI in the next 20 - 50 years.

Population Pyramids for India

The first generation of Baby Boomers (the people who made almost everything happen in IT for the past 30-40 years for US) will start retiring starting 2008. And this trend is going to continue every year for the next 20 years until 2027.

So here is the enumeration of the issues that US has.

1. The technology group of the 70’s, start this retirement cycle in another 3 years, and there are not enough “youths” to replace them, the enough “engineers” is still a secondary question.
2. The IT jobs are also moving to lower cost destinations and this trend is not going to slow down any sooner.
3. US is clearly not capable of producing enough engineers to retain its dominance in IT or to attract newer investments.
4. Since the GDP of the nation will now have to be met with fewer “working hands” it will only mean more “chronic” working hours for all working people, productivity levels are hence bound to fall.

On the other hand, Bangalore and Indian economy, led by IT have some real good opportunities to capitalize on.

1. Its been proven that “Disruptive Innovation“, ultimately takes over the “niche” markets too, and Indians starting off at the lower end of the value-chain have to only start the improvement cycles to move higher up in this “Value Chain”. So far, the Indian IT industry has performed and lived up to its hype, and I am sure that “innovation” and “entreprenurial” spirit is already seeded in my peers and the younger generation.

2. India can surely benefit from the promotion of “Open source” and “free software processes”, because the barriers to enter and compete are torn down by such measures. The new age management philosophies have documented and corroborated the success of such cultures.

3. Perhaps the icing on the cake for India, is the timing of the adoption of “Software as a Service” by the markets, while this idea has been around for some years, only recently has the momentum shifted and is gaining critical acceptance that ultimately enables all software to be hosted, managed, and just provided as a service.
The service model of software, currently looks like the panacea for India’s poor showing in producing software goods. With investments on infrastructure currently being pumped into the Indian market, India can use this and directly enter the “SAS” economic model, and not worry about building sales channels for selling products, It should be able to generate “inorganic growth” if it plays the “Utility/Grid/OnDemand Computing” card well.

4. The developed nations will fuel the investment of such initiatives further because of the “Innovation Blow Back” effect, which is bound to benefit their markets too in the next few years.

5. With all these trigger points lining up in India’s favor, and with the right education system, and a highly-charged youth energy to boot, Bangalore currently looks all set to win this battle. (I am assuming the political/geo-political situtations will be handled appropriately by the people at the helm, to facilitate technology to lead the way for a booming growth phase)

6. If Bangalore and India can demonstrate steadiness for the next decade, doing whatever it takes to lead the “Software as a Service” model, I think they will also stand to reep the “Long tail” in the global and local markets.

And to quote someone “The 19th century belonged to Europe, 20th century belonged to America, and the 21st century belongs to Asia”, India and Bangalore in particular. While tomorrow comes with its own set of uncertainities, the battle can only be lost by Indians and its not for others to win. If Indians stay their course, this will be their Golden Harvest !!

Tomorrow or my next blog entry : What are the important ideas Bangalore can emulate from BayArea ?. How to fuel entreprenurial hunger in the otherwise complacent Indian “Think tank”, what are the tactical, strategic and demographical similarities of Bangalore and BayArea ?. And much more…..

In my previous blog entry we looked at some serious threats to the Indian Software Economy, if India continues being just an Offshore vendor supplying IT personnel based on hourly billing. For now, it has a cushion/buffer period because the threat is a little distant in time. However, this revenue model is organic in growth and cannot be sustained for many years. Over a period of time the value proposition will cease to exist, as profit margins start declining because of global competition, and worst its heavily dependent on countries like USA to provide them with business.

Threats to US Software Economy
The US Software Economy on the other hand has its own set of threats to handle right away. While the past few years have seen rapid adoption of Outsourcing and particularly Offshoring to lower cost destinations like India, the question that is most frequently asked by every programmer here in the US (including those on H1) is “Just how seriously can I compete with some other programmer in a country like India who is delighted to do essentially equivalent work for a fraction of the price that I work for ?”

Well, the harsh truth is they CANNOT. Its one more thumb rule of globalization, the international market always sets the “price of programming”. Hence the threat is very real and immediate. So what are the options for companies/programmers. Can they lower their prices to stay competitive ? Its a no brainer that US programmers/companies simply CANNOT lower their prices to the point that countries like India can.

So to retain their dominance in technology and software US companies and programmers will have to look at avenues to change the economics of software itself, and look for business value in other parts of the “Software Value Chain”.

Approach
Here are some of the options that US companies can adopt to still retain their supremacy. Mind you these are just options (not solutions, so adoption of these options will have to be deliberated and have bearings on political, social climates as well).

1. US Companies can promote free software process, by good licensing agendas and hence commoditizing software. Since the “free” price cannot be undercut, new products coming out of developing countries like India essentially have no seemingly greater value, hence the nature of business essentially shifts to different parts of the value chain, like managing business contracts and not software development as such, and this US certainly has a better control on.

2. US can try to Reform Software Patents, mostly eliminate any further patents on Software, and open up patents on “Business methods” instead. (First to file rather than first to invent). We have already seen most Senior executives advocating this. This can only help US companies, and tear down the competitive barriers in other countries by using its political muscle, thus normarlizing those markets at a rapid pace.

3. US companies can invest in raising the standard of living in India for example, in effect over a period of time the “value differential” between dollar and rupee will be lost, and India can lose its “low cost” tag.

4. Impose Tariffs on software products written outside of US. This might not sustain in the Globalization Era.

So with these (and may be many more I can’t currently think of ) options, US can still make it difficult for other countries to challenge its technology dominance and to an extent alleviate some of its current threats.

Tomorrow or my next blog entry : There are however bigger issues looming large on US, which is “Graying of America” and the end of the “Bay-Boomers Era”. How can India take advantage of this, and will the ever growing Indian youth population prove to be its boon in this struggle for dominance. Stay tuned for more !

Era of Globalization has made each of us competitive and fight for our share of the larger pie. Starting today, I want to document all my thoughts on the new age/old age economics as well as compare both Indian Software Economy and American Software Economy in particular and provide a way to monitor how things shape up, accordingly. While this can be a generic topic, I want to be esoteric enough to objectively address only these two economies for now.

I’ve had the exposure of both the environments (born in Bangalore and living in Bayarea for the past 5 years), and I clearly think I have started to figure out the differences and know more about how these places tick currently. As we start its always beneficial to be ambivalent towards both these economies and objectively try to compare and contrast each in order to enable all of us to understand how Globalization is changing “Software Economics”, the industry that feeds us and hence comments are welcome from all of you.

A little bit of History
We need to learn from our legacy its quite fascinating and really important to see the parallels.

Economic Impact during the BRITISH RAJ :
Indian economy was transformed into a colonial economy whose nature and structure was determined by the needs of the British economy.

India supplied all the raw material required for Britain’s Industrial need, especially the cash crops like jute, cotton, iron ore and became the ready market for Britain’s large-scale finished product. The cottage industries were destroyed systematically and India was forced to accept British goods, which were cheaper than the Indian counterpart.

High revenue demands and rigid manners of collection forced peasants into the clutches of the moneylenders. Expanding population put greater pressure as there was no corresponding development of industry. Britain’s policy of trade ruined India’s urban and rural industries.

Fast Forward to Service / Software Economy Driven by America (especially with all the Outsourcing happening), this is how it will read.

Economic Impact NOW :
Indian economy was transformed into a “vibrant” economy whose nature and structure was determined by the needs of the American economy.

India supplied all the IT resources required for the American Service Industry needs, especially the cash crops like software engineers, business process managers, technical gurus, call centre operators and became the ready market for Americas large-scale finished product. (Remember India still to a large extent does not produce Software Products). The local software industries were “acquired” systematically and India was forced to accept American software products, which eventually were “cheaper” than Indian counterpart.

High revenue demands (The P/E ratio that American Companies look at) and rigid manners of collection (software & service licensing) forced small & medium scale software shops into the clutches of the “moneylenders”. Expanding population in India put greater pressure as there was no corresponding development of service infrastructure within India. America’s policy of trade “took advantage” of India’s software industries.

Approach
Well, do I have to take a pessimistic approach and assume that this how its going to be. NO. There are enough thinking brains in “India” not to allow this to happen. I have already read a few blogs which are calling out loud to prevent this from happening.

Will the USofA essentially create such a “Hostile Environment” with its “green dollars” and will Mergers, TakeOvers and Acquisitions be the norm of the day. Interesting questions, according to me, its not nations or people as such that resort to hostile actions. The “Laws of Global Economics” is unlikely to spare any industry which fails to adapt itself to the changing paradigms both in “Economics” and shifts within the “industry itself”.

Tomorrow or my next blog entry : So will Indian programmers/companies start orienting themselves to produce “Software Products”, then what about an American Programmer, can he then compete with someone who produces goods, by laboring at a fraction of a price (like $400 a month) - what are the options for programmers in America ? Stay tuned.

Where, When, With Whom and What I was doing today ? Here, I have corroborated enough data to pin point the time, date, latitude, longitude and the lovely group I was with, in a manner that the world can take notice.

Cool Uh ? Thanks to the folks at Geobloggers. This is one more service in Utility computing similar to the aforeblogged “GoogleMaps + Craigslist“

As the playing fields are levelled and information barriers are torn down, the power of free speech that it vests on individuals is so overarching, that it can create mighty reprisals from powerful entities like the Corporates and Governments.

I have closely followed Pradyuman Maheshwari’s plight and the premature demise of his blog due to his tussle with the elite and “pristine” in the media world. So, its very important that each of us understand the rules of the game well, before we get on the field. Its no accident that I hide my real identity in all my public blogs, that would be one good way to start.

Most of us are naive about the repercussions our candor can invite, and I am happy to see that at least some steps are being taken to spread this awareness and also find social/technological solutions to protect all such free speech bloggers and this may well be applied to podcasters too.

While I am by no means a journalist and know nothing at all about laws protecting individuals against such backlash from biggies, I am thinking anonymous and community blogging (with groups of bloggers) may be a simple way to avoid such slander. As I write this, it seems more pertinent for me to do some digging to learn about some important ideas in this regard.

I missed it, did not realize that yesterday was so significant. According to some blogs, it was quadruple 5s. Just out of curiosity what we consider the moments like this the fifth second, of the fifth minute of the fifth hour of the fifth day of the week during the 5th month of the 5th year of the century.

05/05/05/05:05:05 during 5th day of the week…. Man, I better get back to more useful work.

Have always been a big fan of Public Radios. Like the npr and the pri. In my opinion, its public radios, public television broadcasters and public libraries that facilitate true information awareness. The cable and private channels are too shallow and have failed miserably in using this powerful mass medium.

As we enter into the “Participation Age“, the tools and “information abstractions” over the web, also need to scale to provide a platform for such community conversations. “Web 1.0″ had already shown how “radio” can be propogated regardless of distance over the internet. This also reminds me of thrills and struggles during our childhood days while listening to Pop music via Radio Ceylon & BBC. Remember, how most of the time it would just be a futile exercise with just noise reception inspite of additional antennas, self-made boosters and tuner knob experiments.

But, nostalgia aside, we surmounted those distance barriers easily few years back when most radio became available online. Now we have leap-frogged one more step further with “Web 2.0″. Enter “Open source radio“. The first radio station to get all its programming from podcasts. Time to reset a preferred channel on my “Car Radio” to AM 1550 KYCY.

And Boy, am I eager to listen to all the “starry” crap from each of you. Can’t Wait !!

Did you think Bloggy was just a thingy of the future or an engineering exercise yet to become a household commodity. Well, wake up from your slumber, I just came across this commercial version of Bloggy. Nokia LifeBlog. Reproducing verbatim what Nokia has said about lifeblog reads like this “Lifeblog automatically organizes photos, videos, text messages, multimedia messages into a chronology that can be easily browsed, searched and shared”. Cool Huh !!, I must admit life never ceases to surprise me.

And the quote of the day “With Lifeblog, the phone becomes the Life Recorder and the PC the Life Archive”. A powerful and very-much-on-track-to-become-true statement.

The lifeblog application currently works only with select mobile phones, and integrates into select Blog engines, but its sure is something to checkout. For starters here is a link to the lifeblog protocol specification.

The vast majority of businesses particularly in the Western World had up until now believed that having a “Secret Sauce” was the true way to sustain and grow business. And hence safeguarding “Intellectual Property” and stretching the “mileage” gained from a single idea, seemed to corrupt even the brilliant minds like that of Edison.

I had known that Edison was as shrewd a businessmen, as he was a technical innovator, but while listening to this wonderful talk from Johnathan about FOSS at the OSBC conference, I learnt about how he tried to stifle the adoption of “AC” during the mass electrification process, simply because he liked “DC” more than “AC”.

In one of my talks in 2003, I had touched upon the concept of “Open source” and how most cusines were rendered rich in variety and quality because of their receipe’s being open source.

In this talk Johnathan goes on to show how standardization and “openness” has helped almost all industries in the past from Canals, Rails, Electricity and Telecommunication, and its quite but a natural course in the evolution of any industry to adopt openness and standardization. This idea is very elementary, and it pains to see that “Corporates” with their greed for material gains, have tried many roadblocks to delay such standardization. Most do not even participate in trying to achieve normative standards for the benefit of a bigger and better cause.

However, I am pleased to know leaders like Johnathan have not only realized that “Community Models” are the way to succeed in adding value to the goods/services sold, but are also advocating and are being vocal to speed its adoption.